The Next American Century by Nina Hachigian & Mona Sutphen

Author:Nina Hachigian & Mona Sutphen
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Simon & Schuster
Published: 2008-07-15T00:00:00+00:00

FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS Constructive relationships with all pivotal powers will have considerable benefits. First, open, stable relationships will continually reassure the pivotal powers about U.S. goodwill, restraint, and judgment, reducing their concerns about U.S. power. Recognizing that the emergence of a hostile competitor can result as much from U.S. actions as from those of pivotal powers, a close relationship will give them no added reasons for distrust. In the 1990s, for example, India went along with China’s then theme of resisting U.S. hegemony partly as “insurance against the uncertainty in Indo-US relations,” explains C. Raja Mohan. Conversly, close relationships will also give pivotal powers frequent opportunities to reassure America with words and actions that they mean no harm.

Regular interactions, including between American and pivotal power militaries, will reduce the chances of misunderstandings or miscalculations. As we write, for example, Chinese and American military commanders have no method for reaching each other in an emergency. When U.S. Pacific Commander Admiral Fallon tried in July 2006 to reach his Chinese counterpart with urgent concerns about a North Korean missile test, his call was returned with a public statement a full twenty-four hours later.

Closer relationships will provide valuable intelligence about the internal workings and strategic thinking of each pivotal power. America should keep the pivotal powers close to its side, where it can see them, monitoring for signs of changes in their posture toward the U.S. or its interests. This will also help Washington to develop a much more nuanced understanding of these powers and what makes them tick, knowledge it will need to navigate effectively in the decades to come. Further, a collaborative framework may help strengthen the forces of moderation within the domestic political environment of the pivotal powers. In some cases, a positive relationship with America may help make it politically harder for pivotal powers to oppose U.S. interests.

Strategic collaboration preserves political and financial capital for the threats America faces today and those that may appear tomorrow. It will also limit the unintended security consequences that big power hostilities inevitably generate.

Close relationships will also put the U.S. in a better position to influence pivotal power foreign policy. Each of the pivotal powers is pondering its own evolving role and profile on the international stage. The United States can play a hand in shaping their priorities as their interests expand, because, from its own experience, America is intimately familiar with the demands, dilemmas, and desires that come with being a great power. (For example, lending or donating funds to a corrupt government with no strings attached may seem like an attractive strategy until you experience your first coup.) America should seek to engage especially the reemerging powers China and Russia in conversations (not lectures) about the kind of world they should want, and the reasons international norms have developed as they have. The U.S. ought to work with Europe, Japan, India, and other major democracies like Brazil and Australia to establish liberal norms of rule of law, transparency, accountability, and individual rights as the norms for all countries.

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